Do Altmetrics Work?

Altmetric measurements derived from the social web are increasingly advocated and used as early indicators of article impact and usefulness. Nevertheless, there is a lack of systematic scientific evidence that altmetrics are valid proxies of either impact or utility although a few case studies have reported medium correlations between specific altmetrics and citation rates for individual journals or fields. To fill this gap, this study compares 11 altmetrics with Web of Science citations for 76 to 208,739 PubMed articles with at least one altmetric mention in each case and up to 1,891 journals per metric. It also introduces a simple sign test to overcome biases caused by different citation and usage windows. Statistically significant associations were found between higher metric scores and higher citations for articles with positive altmetric scores in all cases with sufficient evidence (Twitter, Facebook wall posts, research highlights, blogs, mainstream media and forums) except perhaps for Google+ posts. Evidence was insufficient for LinkedIn, Pinterest, question and answer sites, and Reddit, and no conclusions should be drawn about articles with zero altmetric scores or the strength of any correlation between altmetrics and citations. Nevertheless, comparisons between citations and metric values for articles published at different times, even within the same year, can remove or reverse this association and so publishers and scientometricians should consider the effect of time when using altmetrics to rank articles. Finally, the coverage of all the altmetrics except for Twitter seems to be low and so it is not clear if they are prevalent enough to be useful in practice.

Thelwall M, Haustein S, Larivière V, Sugimoto CR (2013)

Do Altmetrics Work? Twitter and Ten Other Social Web Services 

PLoS ONE 8(5): e64841. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0064841

Prevalence of TB/HIV Co-Infection

They searched PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science for studies of the prevalence of TB/HIV co-infection. We also searched bibliographic indices, scanned reference lists, and corresponded with authors. We summarized the estimates using meta-analysis and explored potential sources of heterogeneity in the estimates by metaregression analysis.

Our analyses suggest that it is necessary to attach importance to HIV/TB co-infection, especially screening of TB/HIV co-infection using methods with high sensitivity, specificity and predictive values in the countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence in the general population.

Gao J, Zheng P, Fu H (2013)

Prevalence of TB/HIV Co-Infection in Countries Except China: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PLoS ONE 8(5): e64915. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0064915

Efficient Control of Epidemics Spreading on Networks

The authors analyse two models describing disease transmission and control on regular and small-world networks. We use simulations to find a control strategy that minimizes the total cost of an outbreak, thus balancing the costs of disease against that of the preventive treatment. The models are similar in their epidemiological part, but differ in how the removed/recovered individuals are treated. The differences in models affect choice of the strategy only for very cheap treatment and slow spreading disease. However for the combinations of parameters that are important from the epidemiological perspective (high infectiousness and expensive treatment) the models give similar results. Moreover, even where the choice of the strategy is different, the total cost spent on controlling the epidemic is very similar for both models.

Oleś K, Gudowska-Nowak E, Kleczkowski A (2013)

Efficient Control of Epidemics Spreading on Networks: Balance between Treatment and Recovery 

PLoS ONE 8(6): e63813. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0063813

Two Rusian males cohorts

They are 1931 (my father), and 1956 (my). For the span of ages with data from both cohorts we could see apparent deterioration in mortality. However, likely that younger cohort will do better at the advanced ages, and it probably was better at younger ages.

Norway Cohort (1979) Mortality

Obviously, the numbers of events is too small to observe regularities. However, rising gender gap at age 21 is provoking ;)
Source: Human Mortality Data Base

how wrong I was

Trying yahoo search engine I found a year or two old paper By SOPHIA KISHKOVSKY / The New York Times "Russia Enacts Law Opposing Abortion", reprinted in post-gazette.com and by awid.

What I had said to her:

 "Since obscurantists cannot turn history back, they limit themselves to small meanness like a week without abortion."

Two years ago I was unable to imagine obscurantism that developed ;(

RLMS data sets and dox

• The main source now is HSE web site, which has an RLMS page (since wave 5).
• Previous location had been North Carolina
• waves 1-4 (questionnaires, data are not easily available, read here)

Correct reference = Source: “Russia Longitudinal Monitoring survey, RLMS-HSE”, conducted by the National Research University Higher School of Economics and ZAO “Demoscope” together with Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the Institute of Sociology RAS.

see links to more various data, including UNICEF MICS
+ more from Stephania Lovo

Abstracts of the First International Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey of HSE User Conference

Abstracts of the First International Russia's Longitudinal Monitoring Survey of HSE User Conference are available in the HSE web site (in one pdfile), click here, the conference program is here (also pdf), and info with links here.
Some guys told that the conference was not the first one, however, it is its  formal title ;)
Likely, it is the first since it belongs to HSE.

Which of vessels are communicating?

On May 28 and 29 I took part in two events:

1. Partners' Forum on Russian Reproductive Health Survey (info about it lived short on Rosstat site, today it is already removed from news list) + I am going to write about partners separately, and
2. Experts' round table at Gorbachov Fund “Demographic problems in the context of the modernization of Russian society”.

Many other people participated in the events, especially in Rosstat's one, probably more than one hundred, and only about twenty at Gorby fund. I talked on Current Russian Govt Approach to Reproductive Health. Certainly, I gave my own personal opinion and value judgments, and I am reproducing them below, presentation in Russian is here.

1. Complimentary part:
It was necessary to congratulate Rosstat for its 150th birthday (1863, Tsar-Liberator attempted to civilize Russia). Concerning the survey: Better late than never. The first RHS took place in El Salvador, 1975, Russia has experience of 1996 and 1999, when this methodology had been applied to estimate the efficiency of (breastfeeding promotion?) project. A unified program allows international comparisons of detailed indicators, which government statistics do not posses, albeit only 27 of about 80 sets of survey data are freely accessible from CDC site. However, most interesting for us data set (Ukraine, 1999 despite not very recent) is available. There is a large amount of new data that will give the opportunity to test some specific hypotheses (use of contraception+abortion culture).
Thanks for the survey, thank you for publishing the results, for the invitation to discuss.
Nikitina nodded, when I said about the possibility to work with data obtained in the Russian Federation. These data will also be available, thanks in advance.
Frankly speaking, I supposed, we are discussing a draft report, since there are a lot of stupid errors, mistypings, etc., but to our surprise the printed final version had been distributed. Thus the forum aim became unclear. I had supposed to speak about the text, since tables are not possible to comment. Results showed no significant discrepancies with what was previously known from other sources, and nothing counter-intuitive.

2. Scary reading:
Examples (section 11.3. Opinion about the risks ...)

• Most of the women ... have no idea how dangerous are the use of injectable hormonal contraceptives or tubal ligation ...
• Increasing knowledge about the dangers of abortion may contribute to the increased use of modern contraceptives.

It is a MoH.ru beloved horror story: Do not use these capitalist shit! From the same set of MoH.ru common arguments: pill use causes the mustache growth, breast cancer, and extra weight. As far as I understand, bureaucracy calls it: report agreed with the Ministry of Health. My suggestion was = remove it. And they did, removed by rephrasing, added a sheet of paper inside the book. They (organizers) also asked me to avoid speaking about it, they had removed the slide from my presentation sent beforehand. That made me redirect my speech from critics of MoH to critics of ideology of abortion perception (subj). Govt.ru inadequately considers fertility v abortion not abortion v contraception.

4. Abortion
It is likely the central theme of reproductive health domain in this country. Russia is remaining a leader, although births recently (five years ago) surpassed the number of abortions. It is interesting that the lag from two neighbor countries strangely coincides with changes in govt.ru approach to reproductive health. The dynamics of reduction is not as favorable as it may seem, but the forum does not cover the issue with a particularly needed and inevitable section. However, the topic had been attached to the speech on fertility!!! made by Serbanescu. Despite I was invited to make a comment on contraception, this is not possible without concerning abortion. These are communicating vessels, not fertility and abortion.

Why we do not discuss abortion? The level of post-abortion complications in Russia is ten times higher than in the USA despite Russia has the longest history of legal abortion, 74 years. During this period MoH had been unable to train personnel to perform safe abortion. Why do we welcome them to a floor and reconcile anything with guys not knowing how to work properly.

5. More from the report:

• section 7.3: This points to the need for education in this (family planning) regard.
• section 9: This information can be used to effectively manage the system of family planning services, as well as monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of the system.
• section 9.3: We must carefully anticipate the needs for contraception in the future. This information will help policy makers and program planners to estimate the volume of the stocks to plan a budget.

Wow! Yyess. But what is it? My impression, – it is written about some other country, not about Russia. The authors probably borrowed the text from report on Kenya. Have we a system of family planning services? Or bodies responsible for this policy? Nobody have seen them.

Before moving on to the recommendations, I want to draw your attention to a couple of facts from the sources other than this report

6. Menarche and age at the first sex (data: RLMS-HSE, 19th round, 2010)
Median age at menarche is 13 years, i.e., a half of the girls starts to have a risk of pregnancy at about school's 7th degree, and by the end of the school a little less than half has already had a sexual experience (penetration).

7. The growth of HIV prevalence (data: Federal AIDS Center)
In 2012 Federal AIDS Center registered 62+ thousand new cases of HIV (in 2011 – 58+), about 20% of them was a result of heterosexual contact (since for about a half of new cases the transmission mode is unknown Federal AIDS Center prorates to 40%), thus one person a day in age group 15-20 is expected to be infected (my estimate;).
Condom prevents (hetero)sexual HIV-transmission, but MoH destroyed all HIV prevention programs.

8. Recommendations. Two parts: (1) concerning survey, (2) concerning policy.

• open data for researchers +Another conference in a about a year after disclosure to discuss the results of independent researches
• regular conduction of such a survey

and

1. Introduction of sex education lessons in school, in particular, the use of contraception.
2. Resumption of funding of the federal family planning program
3. Renascence the full scale activities of Russian Association of Family Planning

Concerning policy recommendations can be combined into one: abandonment the obscurantist (Medvedev) modernization and return to the position that Russia held in the early wild 90's (before the Cairo conference)

I understand that the Ministry of Health does not need my nor any other recommendations, but I still hope the open data.

Next day after the partners forum in the news:

Measures that Ministry of Health is preparing to minimize fertility reduction are associated with a decrease in the number of abortions

Russian LJ about the event (and here)

memo 4a reviewer

When assessing the work, please consider the following points:

1. Is the question posed by the authors new and well defined?
2. Are the methods appropriate and well described, and are sufficient details provided to replicate the work?
3. Are the data sound and well controlled?
4. Does the manuscript adhere to the relevant standards for reporting and data deposition?
5. Are the discussion and conclusions well balanced and adequately supported by the data?
6. Do the title and abstract accurately convey what has been found?
7. Is the writing acceptable?

AGI again

What is interesting in this pic?
A map.
Performing an abortion in People Republic of China is safer than in Russian Federation. Despite Russia has the longest history of legal abortion (1920-1936+1955-now=74+, and even from 1936 to 1955 abortion was not fully banned) Russian doctors have not learned how to make an abortion.
Albeit I am pretty sure that AGI conclusion is based upon Russian Ministry of Health sources (intimidation in many official materials) and medical community experts comments in media, not on correct data and careful analysis, which are far from real thing -- low quality of service remains apparent.

upg:
above coment remains valid, although my impression of the map was different and incorrect. For more adequate understanding see the WHO definition (Safe abortion: technical and policy guidance for health systems, page 18, pdf):

Unsafe abortion is defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a procedure for terminating an unintended pregnancy, carried out either by persons lacking the necessary skills or in an environment that does not conform to minimal medical standards, or both.

Adequacy of abortion statistics in Russia

this is our presentation to this conference