oral history

wishlist #2

43-2 The U.S. Transgender Health Landscape: A Multilevel Analysis of Self-rated Health in 27 States

Thursday, April 27, 2017: 10:30 AM

Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)

Danya Raquel Lagos , Sociology, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL

Drawing from a 27-state subsample of the 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 Behavior Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), I evaluate the association between gender identity and self-rated health between cisgender, transgender, and gender non-conforming groups. Because policies and socioeconomic factors vary widely across states, this study employs multilevel logistic estimation to account for variation among individuals within states. The analysis finds distinct health disparities between gender identity groups, with gender non-conforming individuals reporting the highest odds for poor health, followed by transgender women, transgender men, cisgender women, and cisgender men, respectively. Most of these differences are explained by a combination of socioeconomic, behavioral, and support network factors. However, the higher odds of poor health among gender-nonconforming respondents persist despite these controls, and may be due to differences in social support similar to those experienced by bisexuals.

P5-12 Social-Institutional Structures That Matter: An Exploratory Analysis of Sexual/Gender Minority Status and Income in Japan

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Salon D (Hilton Chicago)

Daiki Hiramori , Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

While most previous studies examining the effects of sexual orientation on earnings rely on lesbian women, gay men, and their heterosexual counterparts in Western societies, this paper argues that focusing on different stratification processes withinsexual/gender minorities as well as social-institutional structures of a society is indispensable to the study of sexuality stratification. Using the LGBT Workplace Environment Survey 2015, this study explores the association between sexual/gender minority status and income in Japan. The results show that there is a negative association between being a sexual/gender minority and income among both designated females at birth and designated males at birth. The results suggesting the lesbian premium found in Western economies are not observed in Japan. In addition, the findings indicate that the processes through which sexuality stratification operates depend on various categories of sexual/gender minorities such as lesbian, gay, bisexual, asexual, transgender, and a local transgender category in Japan “X-gender.”

43 Sexual and Gender Minorities, Health, and Mortality

Thursday, April 27, 2017: 10:15 AM-11:45 AM

Salon A-2 (Hilton Chicago)

Objectives:

Synopsis:

Discussants:

Kyler J. Sherman-Wilkins and Gilbert Gonzales

Session Chair:

Gilbert Gonzales

10:15 AM

43-1

Social Networks and Health Among Older LGBT Adults in the San Francisco Bay Area
Tara McKay, Vanderbilt University

10:30 AM

43-2

The U.S. Transgender Health Landscape: A Multilevel Analysis of Self-rated Health in 27 States
Danya Raquel Lagos, University of Chicago

10:45 AM

43-3

Marriage, Partnerships, and Health Status: Differences by Sexual Orientation in the BRFSS-SOP
Bridget Gorman, Rice University; Alexa Solazzo, Rice University; Justin T. Denney, Rice University

11:00 AM

43-4

A Nationally-Representative Analysis of Mortality Risk in Same-Sex and Different-Sex Unions in the United States
Andrew Fenelon, University of Maryland, College Park; Christina Dragon, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services; Corinne Reczek, The Ohio State University; Hui Liu, Michigan State University

wishlist: reports to hear

55-3 Probabilistic Population Projections for Countries With Generalized HIV/AIDS Epidemics

Thursday, April 27, 2017: 1:40 PM

Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)

David J. Sharrow , University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Jessica Godwin , Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Yanjun He , University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Sam Clark , The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH

Adrian Raftery , Statistics and Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

The UN issues probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and combining the results using the cohort-component projection method. However, projections for the 40 countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics used Spectrum/EPP model, a complex 15-compartment model designed for short-term projections of quantities relevant to policy for the epidemic. We propose a simpler approach that is more compatible with the existing UN methodology for other countries. Changes in life expectancy are projected probabilistically using a time series regression model on current life expectancy, HIV prevalence and ART coverage. These are converted to age- and sex-specific mortality rates using a new family of model life tables designed for countries with HIV/AIDS epidemics which are input to the cohort-component method. The method performed well in out-of-sample cross-validation, and gives similar results to Spectrum/EPP projections in the short run.

25-2 Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Total Fertility Rates

Thursday, April 27, 2017: 10:35 AM

Joliet Room (Hilton Chicago)

Hana Sevcikova , University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Adrian Raftery , Statistics and Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Patrick Gerland , United Nations Population Division, New York, NY

We consider the problem of probabilistic projection of the total fertility
rate (TFR) for subnational units. We seek a method that is consistent
with the UN's recently adopted Bayesian method for probabilistic TFR
projections for all countries, and works well for all countries.
We assess various possible methods using subnational TFR data for 47 countries.
We find that the method that performs best in terms of out-of-sample
predictive performance and also in terms of reproducing the within-country
correlation in TFR is a method that scales the national trajectory by
a subregion-specific scale factor that is allowed to vary slowly over time.
This supports the hypothesis of Watkins (1990, 1991) that within-country
TFR converges over time in response to country-specific factors,
and extends the Watkins hypothesis to the last 50 years and to a much
wider range of countries around the world.

74-4 Comparing Artificial Neural Network and Cohort-Component Models for Population Forecasts

Thursday, April 27, 2017: 3:45 PM

Joliet Room (Hilton Chicago)

Viktoria Riiman , Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL

Amalee Wilson , Computer and Information Sciences, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL

Reed M Milewicz , Computer and Information Sciences, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL

Peter Pirkelbauer , Computer and Information Sciences, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL

Artificial neural network (ANN) models are rarely used to forecast population in spite of their growing prominence in other fields. We compare the forecasts generated by ANN long short-term memory models with population projections from traditional cohort-component method (CCM) for counties in Alabama. The evaluation includes forecasts for all 67 counties that offer diversity in terms of population and socioeconomic characteristics. When comparing predicted values with total population counts from the 2010 decennial census, the CCM used by the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Alabama in 2001 produced more accurate results than a basic multi-county ANN model. Only when we use single-county models or proxy for a forecaster's experience and personal judgment with potential economic forecasts, results from ANN models improve. The results indicate the significance of forecaster's experience and judgment for CCM and difficulty, but not impossibility of substituting these insights with available data.

P3-45 Immigration Forecasts: A Bayesian Semiparametric Approach for Seasonal Data

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Salon D (Hilton Chicago)

Alice Milivinti , University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland

Giacomo Benini , University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland

Immigration is the main driver of population change in developed countries. Nevertheless, a
common sense around its unpredictability has left migration forecasts relatively underdeveloped
vis-à-vis other types of population projections. Using high-frequency data, this paper proposes
a new procedure specifically designed to capture seasonal irregularities generated by trend-cycle
interactions. The resulting estimation strategy identifies a class of structural parameters which
reflect the non-constant nature of the immigration flows while introducing prior information
derived from subjective expectations. The outcome is an efficient symbiosis between Bayesian
probability and semiparametric flexibility, which outperforms in terms of forecast accuracy a
set of alternatives

23-1 Socially Embedded Preferences, Environmental Externalities, and Reproductive Rights

Thursday, April 27, 2017: 8:30 AM

Continental B (Hilton Chicago)

Aisha Dasgupta , United Nations Population Division, New York, NY

Partha Dasgupta , Department of Economics, Cambridge University, Cambridge, United Kingdom

We review a class of adverse environmental externalities that accompany consumption and procreation. We also identify externalities that are traceable to socially embedded preferences for family size. Those preference structures can give rise to a heightened demand for children, exacerbating the environmental externalities households impose on future generations. Our analysis exposes weaknesses in basing family planning programmes entirely on individuals' reproductive rights. We use ecological data to obtain a feel for the size of global environmental externalities. We estimate the world population the biosphere can support at the standard of living enjoyed in high middle-income countries. Today's and future global population projections far exceed our estimate, implying that the UN's Sustainable Development Goals are unsustainable. We conclude that family planning has been undervalued by national governments and international agencies. Our purpose is to pose questions that continue to be neglected in the development literature. We do not make policy recommendations.

P3-84 Brass Relational Logit Model and Life Table Construction

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Salon D (Hilton Chicago)

Lei LU , Freelancer, Beijing, China

The Brass Relational Logit Model (BRLM) has been one of the most commonly used methods for (model) life table construction and mortality estimates. BRLM can be used as a statistical model, by which the two parameters (alpha and beta) can be estimated from statistical data. In the meantime, the logit model can also be used as a two-parameter analytic model, by which the relationship between two life tables can be studied mathematically.

In this paper, the author discusses three issues related to (model) life table construction with the Brass relational logit model, i.e. (i) some basic analytic properties of the Brass relational logit model, (ii) the analytic relationships between the alpha parameter and various life table indicators, and (iii) the analytic effects of the death distribution factor (i.e. a(x,n) ) on various life table indicators. Some of the analytic relationships/equations developed in this paper can be used for mortality estimation and projection purposes.

55 HIV/AIDS: Methods and Impact

Thursday, April 27, 2017: 1:00 PM-2:30 PM

Salon A-5 (Hilton Chicago)

Objectives:

Synopsis:

Session Chair: Mark E. McGovern

26 Demographic Applications in the Private and Public Sectors

Thursday, April 27, 2017: 10:15 AM-11:45 AM

Astoria Room (Hilton Chicago)

Objectives:

Synopsis:

Discussant: Beth Jarosz

Session Chair: Mike Cline

132 Statistical Methods in Population Research

Friday, April 28, 2017: 8:30 AM-10:00 AM

Williford C (Hilton Chicago)

Objectives:

Synopsis:

Discussant: Scott M. Lynch

Session Chair: Shooshan Danagoulian

146 Health and Mortality Projections

Friday, April 28, 2017: 10:15 AM-11:45 AM

Salon A-1 (Hilton Chicago)

Objectives:

Synopsis:

Discussant: Simona Bignami

Session Chair: Vinod Mishra

Program in general

Reproductive Health and Rights: Policies and Impacts

Thursday, April 27, 2017: 4:45 PM-6:15 PM

Continental B (Hilton Chicago)

Objectives:

Synopsis:

Discussant:

Katherine Tumlinson

Session Chair:

Tia Palermo

4:45 PM

114-1

Brazil's Bolsa Familia: Can a Conditional Cash Transfer Reduce Teen Fertility?
Sarah A. Reynolds, University of California, Berkeley; Zachary Olson, University of California, Berkeley; Rachel Gardner, University of California, Berkeley

5:05 PM

114-2

Validating a Measure of Rights-Based Family Planning Service Delivery 
Kelsey Wright, Population Council; Vicky Boydell, International Planned Parenthood Federation; Karen Hardee, Population Council

5:25 PM

114-3

Russian Parliament Activities in the Area of Reproductive Rights and Their Impact on the Dynamics of Abortions in the Russian Federation
Victoria Ivanovna Sakevich, Higher School of Economics; Boris Petrovich Denisov, Lomonosov Moscow State University; Victor Agadjanian, University of Kansas

5:45 PM

114-4

The Failure to Make Internal Hospital Reproductive Health Policies—Catholic or Otherwise—Transparent to the Public in Washington State
Hilary Schwandt, Johns Hopkins University and Western Washington University; Bethany Krahn, Western Washington University; Moriah Post-Kinney, Western Washington University

See more of: Sessions and PAA-Sponsored Events

guidelines for presentations

more? funds

Dear Boris,
Dear Victoria,

We are sorry to hear that you won’t be able to attend the conference.
Thank you for letting us know.

Kind regards,
Rozemarijn

this is from ESHMS-Reproductive health sessions, add to previous

ответ Керзона (экономического ф-та):

Добрый день, Борис Петрович!
Мне передали Ваше письмо о заявках на оплату командировок. К сожалению, Ваши заявки на оплату не были одобрены членами Ученого совета.

а перед этим Аузан сделал заявление, что командировочный фонд плохо расходуется, но это уже совсем (more or less) другая история

funds

Dear Boris Denisov,

Thank you for writing to us to let us know that you will be unable to present your poster at the upcoming EPC 2016 due t o a lack of funds. We confirm that we have removed your submission from the program.

We hope to meet you at a future EAPS event.

Best regards,
Irene
Irene Rodriguez
For the EPC 2016 Team
http://epc2016.princeton.edu

coming soon?

Gender Relations and Birth Control in the Age of the Pill

you may wish to see some photos from the event
plenty of Jena and too few of the fellow participants

a theologian

lost or found in translation

observed reality or the future image ?

discussing reproductive health at Rosstat, May 2013

Which of vessels are communicating?

On May 28 and 29 I took part in two events:

1. Partners' Forum on Russian Reproductive Health Survey (info about it lived short on Rosstat site, today it is already removed from news list) + I am going to write about partners separately, and
2. Experts' round table at Gorbachov Fund “Demographic problems in the context of the modernization of Russian society”.

Many other people participated in the events, especially in Rosstat's one, probably more than one hundred, and only about twenty at Gorby fund. I talked on Current Russian Govt Approach to Reproductive Health. Certainly, I gave my own personal opinion and value judgments, and I am reproducing them below, presentation in Russian is here.

1. Complimentary part:
It was necessary to congratulate Rosstat for its 150th birthday (1863, Tsar-Liberator attempted to civilize Russia). Concerning the survey: Better late than never. The first RHS took place in El Salvador, 1975, Russia has experience of 1996 and 1999, when this methodology had been applied to estimate the efficiency of (breastfeeding promotion?) project. A unified program allows international comparisons of detailed indicators, which government statistics do not posses, albeit only 27 of about 80 sets of survey data are freely accessible from CDC site. However, most interesting for us data set (Ukraine, 1999 despite not very recent) is available. There is a large amount of new data that will give the opportunity to test some specific hypotheses (use of contraception+abortion culture).
Thanks for the survey, thank you for publishing the results, for the invitation to discuss.
Nikitina nodded, when I said about the possibility to work with data obtained in the Russian Federation. These data will also be available, thanks in advance.
Frankly speaking, I supposed, we are discussing a draft report, since there are a lot of stupid errors, mistypings, etc., but to our surprise the printed final version had been distributed. Thus the forum aim became unclear. I had supposed to speak about the text, since tables are not possible to comment. Results showed no significant discrepancies with what was previously known from other sources, and nothing counter-intuitive.

2. Scary reading:
Examples (section 11.3. Opinion about the risks ...)

• Most of the women ... have no idea how dangerous are the use of injectable hormonal contraceptives or tubal ligation ...
• Increasing knowledge about the dangers of abortion may contribute to the increased use of modern contraceptives.

It is a MoH.ru beloved horror story: Do not use these capitalist shit! From the same set of MoH.ru common arguments: pill use causes the mustache growth, breast cancer, and extra weight. As far as I understand, bureaucracy calls it: report agreed with the Ministry of Health. My suggestion was = remove it. And they did, removed by rephrasing, added a sheet of paper inside the book. They (organizers) also asked me to avoid speaking about it, they had removed the slide from my presentation sent beforehand. That made me redirect my speech from critics of MoH to critics of ideology of abortion perception (subj). Govt.ru inadequately considers fertility v abortion not abortion v contraception.

4. Abortion
It is likely the central theme of reproductive health domain in this country. Russia is remaining a leader, although births recently (five years ago) surpassed the number of abortions. It is interesting that the lag from two neighbor countries strangely coincides with changes in govt.ru approach to reproductive health. The dynamics of reduction is not as favorable as it may seem, but the forum does not cover the issue with a particularly needed and inevitable section. However, the topic had been attached to the speech on fertility!!! made by Serbanescu. Despite I was invited to make a comment on contraception, this is not possible without concerning abortion. These are communicating vessels, not fertility and abortion.

Why we do not discuss abortion? The level of post-abortion complications in Russia is ten times higher than in the USA despite Russia has the longest history of legal abortion, 74 years. During this period MoH had been unable to train personnel to perform safe abortion. Why do we welcome them to a floor and reconcile anything with guys not knowing how to work properly.

5. More from the report:

• section 7.3: This points to the need for education in this (family planning) regard.
• section 9: This information can be used to effectively manage the system of family planning services, as well as monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of the system.
• section 9.3: We must carefully anticipate the needs for contraception in the future. This information will help policy makers and program planners to estimate the volume of the stocks to plan a budget.

Wow! Yyess. But what is it? My impression, – it is written about some other country, not about Russia. The authors probably borrowed the text from report on Kenya. Have we a system of family planning services? Or bodies responsible for this policy? Nobody have seen them.

Before moving on to the recommendations, I want to draw your attention to a couple of facts from the sources other than this report

6. Menarche and age at the first sex (data: RLMS-HSE, 19th round, 2010)
Median age at menarche is 13 years, i.e., a half of the girls starts to have a risk of pregnancy at about school's 7th degree, and by the end of the school a little less than half has already had a sexual experience (penetration).

7. The growth of HIV prevalence (data: Federal AIDS Center)
In 2012 Federal AIDS Center registered 62+ thousand new cases of HIV (in 2011 – 58+), about 20% of them was a result of heterosexual contact (since for about a half of new cases the transmission mode is unknown Federal AIDS Center prorates to 40%), thus one person a day in age group 15-20 is expected to be infected (my estimate;).
Condom prevents (hetero)sexual HIV-transmission, but MoH destroyed all HIV prevention programs.

8. Recommendations. Two parts: (1) concerning survey, (2) concerning policy.

• open data for researchers +Another conference in a about a year after disclosure to discuss the results of independent researches
• regular conduction of such a survey

and

1. Introduction of sex education lessons in school, in particular, the use of contraception.
2. Resumption of funding of the federal family planning program
3. Renascence the full scale activities of Russian Association of Family Planning

Concerning policy recommendations can be combined into one: abandonment the obscurantist (Medvedev) modernization and return to the position that Russia held in the early wild 90's (before the Cairo conference)

I understand that the Ministry of Health does not need my nor any other recommendations, but I still hope the open data.

Next day after the partners forum in the news:

Measures that Ministry of Health is preparing to minimize fertility reduction are associated with a decrease in the number of abortions

Russian LJ about the event (and here)

Adequacy of abortion statistics in Russia

this is our presentation to this conference

the first RLMS-HSE users' conference

May 17-18, Moscow

left to right: B. Popkin, P. Kozyreva, V. Radayev, M. Kosolapov
conference abstracts

RLMS-HSE conference

Likely we (Vita+me) will participate in the 1st International Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey of HSE User Conference, Moscow, May 17 to 18, 2013 with a report about completeness of Russian abortion statistics.
Our preliminary result near perfectly fits to Philipov et al (pdf), in other words: official data is very good.